Argentina may be reinstated into the United States’ Visa Waiver Program after more than two decades. One analysis has found that tourism could double and trade between the two countries could rise by over US$11 billion annually if Argentina’s waiver bid is successful.

The figures were produced by website Argentina Expat, based on data from the US Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration and the National Travel and Tourism Office. They compared Argentina’s current U.S. commercial relationship with figures for Chile before and after it joined the Visa Waiver Program. 

US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said on Monday that “25% more Argentines” travelled to the U.S. between January and April this year, which she said was “the largest jump of any of the top 20 countries for international arrivals.”

Currently, approximately 955,000 Argentine travellers visit the US each year. With visa-free access, that number could rise to nearly 1.9 million annually, the analysis found. 

At present, Argentines can apply for visas to make short visits to the United States for tourism, business, visiting family and friends, or medical treatments. Argentines are usually granted a B-1/B-2 visa, combining tourism and business purposes, which is valid for up to 10 years.

Chile joined the visa waiver program in 2014. In the decade that followed, annual Chilean tourism to the United States more than doubled, rising from an average of 188,000 visitors to over 377,000.

Trade also saw a notable increase. US-Chile bilateral goods trade rose by 36% over the same period, from an annual average of US$18.9 billion to US$25.7 billion.

In 2023, Argentina sent approximately 563,000 visitors to the US as it continued to rebound from the pandemic. In 2019, that figure stood at 955,000. 

Based on trends observed in Chile, bilateral trade between Argentina and the US could rise by US$11.2 billion annually if the waiver goes through.

Ognjen Pavlovic, founder of Argentina Expat, which focuses on expat life and business in the region, said the potential benefits of the policy change extend far beyond tourism.

“Argentina represents a much larger market than Chile did in 2014,” Pavlovic said. “With a growing middle class and strong cultural ties to the US, this could unlock long-term commercial opportunities. Argentine travellers tend to stay longer and spend more. They’re tourists, yes — but also businesspeople, investors, and part of a large Argentine-American diaspora.”