This Sunday’s electoral test, with four provinces voting to renew the local legislatures, left governors triumphant. The provincial leaders vindicated their terms in office and consolidated their command. In three of the four provinces, national ruling party La Libertad Avanza (LLA) participated in the election for the first time.

With voter apathy reflected in low turnout, Gustavo Sáenz (Salta), Carlos Sadir (Jujuy), Leandro Zdero (Chaco), and Claudio Poggi (San Luis) — four moderate governors who have cooperated with President Javier Milei — secured their territories and gained breathing room for the second half of their terms, retaining legislative majorities. Meanwhile, Peronism paid a high price for its internal divisions, and LLA suffered predictable defeats in the districts where it ran its purple ballot without allies.

As expected, the libertarians, known for stretching narratives, tried to promote interpretations not grounded in reality. The first was a supposed “victory” in Salta, based solely on being the force with the most votes in the provincial capital. However, Sáenz’s local political group captured 70% of the seats at stake. LLA won only one of the 12 senate seats up for grabs and nine of the 30 lower house seats being renewed. The second claim was to appropriate the win in Chaco, where they were a junior partner in the coalition led by Zdero, which also included the PRO party.

Still, it would also be misguided to draw broad national conclusions from this election. It’s equally unfounded to suggest that the libertarians’ defeats in these provinces — along with an earlier loss in Santa Fe — indicate a decline in public support for Milei. The President remains the most favorably viewed political figure at national level. 

Pragmatism rather than idealism

Moreover, LLA has deliberately avoided investing heavily in gubernatorial races, relying on provincial governors to help advance its agenda in Congress. The party also lacks strong candidates in many regions and generally works with whatever resources are available, more out of pragmatism than idealism.

A similar pattern occurred in 2023: candidates aligned with Milei suffered heavy losses in provincial elections, yet the libertarian leader went on to win nationally. That precedent matters. Assuming that things are different now may reflect more of the opposition’s hopes than an accurate reading of the federal political landscape.

The ruling parties in Salta and San Luis are strictly provincial, heterogeneous political formations. It’s likely that both Sáenz and Poggi will remain neutral in the upcoming October elections, granting their local leaders the freedom to align with whichever national front they prefer. In other words, this month’s scenario is unlikely to be repeated. 

In San Luis, LLA did not officially participate, and Karina Milei refused to allow national deputy Carlos D’Alessandro to use the party’s name. As a result, he ran with another party that mimicked Milei’s aesthetic and garnered nearly 8% of the vote. A similar group, called Viva La Libertad Carajo (echoing the president’s favored campaign slogan), achieved a similar result. 

Poggi, who revived an alliance with PRO, the UCR, and dissident Peronists, faced off against the PJ led by Alberto Rodríguez Saá, who again fell short and remained at odds with his brother Adolfo (now aligned with the governor, as in 2023). Notably, for the first time, voters in San Luis used the single paper ballot format.

LLA’s performance in Salta

In Salta, Milei’s supporters performed respectably. While claiming victory in the provincial capital doesn’t equate to winning the election, as the libertarians assert, securing control of that department is no small feat. It represents half the province’s electorate and serves as a warning sign for Sáenz looking ahead to 2027.

In Jujuy, LLA had a strong showing, placing second. Governor Sadir maintained UCR dominance in the province, even as signs of fatigue began to show in his administration. He benefited from a fragmented opposition, with Peronism split between a PJ faction officially overseen by Cristina Kirchner and two other lists opposed to her leadership. Sadir also gained from the presence of two “liberblue” lists that siphoned votes away from LLA.

In this context, the PJ factions in Salta and Jujuy, both under the influence of Cristina Kirchner, suffered major defeats. In Salta, they failed to win any senate or lower house seats. In Jujuy, they were in third place, behind LLA.

A replicable alliance?

The most nationally intriguing experiment took place in Chaco, where Governor Leandro Zdero, also from the UCR, formed an alliance with La Libertad Avanza — something none of his fellow moderate governors had tried before. He defeated a heavyweight opponent, Jorge Capitanich, who had managed to unite most of the Peronist movement behind his candidacy.

On one hand, the PJ is slowly moving toward unity in provinces that will elect senators in October. Chaco and Buenos Aires City (with Leandro Santoro heading the ticket) are examples. On the other hand, the success of the Zdero-LLA-PRO alliance could encourage other PRO and UCR leaders to seek similar deals. Many share the same voter base, and it’s common for citizens to support their local governor while also backing Milei at national level. A divided non-Peronist front could open the door for the PJ if it manages to rally together.

These alliances also present an opportunity for Mauricio Macri, who is pursuing province-by-province negotiations in Buenos Aires. Following the theory promoted by Milei’s advisor Santiago Caputo, the results demonstrate that LLA on its own, in districts without strong representatives, fails to convert Milei’s popularity into votes. 

Milei, for his part, lacks the bandwidth to personally oversee 24 provincial campaigns. There’s a clear distinction between Milei himself, the LLA party, and its local candidates — the movement’s momentum fades at each link in the chain.

Finally, it’s worth noting that Salta, the only one of the four provinces to use electronic voting, had swift vote counting — with nearly 100% of results in by 8:00 p.m. In contrast, Jujuy, using traditional paper ballots, didn’t report its first results until 9:30 p.m.