Ecuador and Guatemala vote amid democratic turbulence

The countries head to the polls following tense electoral run-ups marked by violence and corruption allegations

Ecuador and Guatemala are holding elections in order to replace presidents Guillermo Lasso and Alejandro Giammattei respectively. Both countries are facing democratic turbulence after an Ecuadorian candidate was killed, and Guatemalan courts attempted to disqualify a reformist candidate with the highest voting intention from Sunday’s runoff.

Ecuador

On August 9, presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, a vocal critic of corruption and organized crime, was shot to death while leaving a campaign event. Six suspects have been detained — according to police, they are all Colombian and belong to criminal gangs. Another suspect died of injuries sustained in the ensuing shootout.

Christian Zurita replaced Villavicencio as presidential candidate for Movimiento Construye, although Villavicencio’s name and image will be the ones to appear on the ballots since they were printed before his death.

Zurita has promised to better equip the police and enshrine intelligence protocols to fight crime, using international loans to shore up social programs.

Five days after Villavicencio’s murder, political organizer Pedro Briones was killed. He was director for Revolución Ciudadana, the party led by former President Rafael Correa.

Luisa Gonzalez, Revolución Ciudadana’s candidate, leads polling with about 24% of voting intention.

González has promised to free up US$2.5 billion from international reserves to bolster Ecuador’s economy, as well as bring back social programs implemented by Correa during his decade in power.

Pro-market candidate Otto Sonnenholzner, who served as vice president between 2018 and 2020, has hardened his discourse since Villavicencio’s murder, repeatedly promising that criminals who use violence will be shot by police under his government.

Other candidates are Jan Topic, who has pledged to solve security problems first; Daniel Noboa, who has centered his campaign on job creation; environmentalist Indigenous candidate Yaku Perez; Xavier Hervas and Bolívar Armijos.

In order to win in the first round, a candidate needs 50% of the vote, or 40% if they are 10 points ahead of their nearest rival. Otherwise, a second round will take place on October 15.

Also on Sunday’s ballot are two environmental referendums — both expected to pass — which could block mining in a forest near Quito and the development of an oil block in the Amazon.

Guatemala

Guatemala is holding its runoff after the June 25 general elections, when de Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza’s Sandra Torres, wife of former president Álvaro Colom (2008-2012), won with 15.8% and progressive Movimiento Semilla’s Bernardo Arévalo came in a surprise close second with 11.7%.

Recent polls have predicted Arévalo, who is running on an anti-graft message, will trounce Torres, an establishment figure with a conservative discourse. 

Campaigning in Guatemala was marred by attempts by some officials to remove Arévalo and his Semilla party from the race, on the grounds that signatures from the party’s election registration forms had allegedly been fraudulent.

His surprise second-place finish in June’s first-round vote provoked calls from opponents for recounts that delayed official results. His party was briefly suspended at the request of a prosecutor before the country’s top court reversed the ban.

The political back-and-forth has put some voters on edge about potential problems during the run-off, which Arevalo has publicly said he is expecting.

The attorney general who called for Semilla’s suspension had been previously added by the U.S. State Department to its Engel List of “corrupt and undemocratic actors”.

Guatemala’s new president will assume power as violence and food insecurity roil the country, triggering fresh waves of migration. Guatemalans now represent the largest number of Central Americans seeking to enter the United States. The president-elect should take office on January 14.

— With information from Reuters

Newsletter

All Right Reserved.  Buenos Aires Herald