Chávez says would respect Venezuela vote if loses

Venezuela's Hugo Chávez said that if an opposition candidate wins this year's presidential election, he will be the first to recognize the rival's victory and hand over power.

The most extreme critics of the controversial South American socialist suggest he could refuse to accept the results if he loses on Oct. 7.

In his annual state of the nation speech to parliament, Chávez, 57, scoffed at that and urged opposition leaders to publicly pledge to respect the ballot results.

"I recognize the opposition is making a great effort ... If one of you wins the election, I would be the first to recognize it, and I ask the same of you," he said, after making a point of greeting some of his most virulent critics on his way in.

"We are going to show the world the political maturity that we have acquired in these years of democratic revolution."

Chávez traveled from the Miraflores presidential palace to the National Assembly in the back of an open-topped limo, with bodyguards running alongside and throngs of red-clad supporters cheering as they lined the route.

This year's election battle is shaping up to be the toughest that Chávez has faced in his 13 years in power.

He underwent cancer surgery in June, then four rounds of chemotherapy. A newly united opposition coalition sees this election as the best chance to unseat him.

Most analysts, however, see Chávez having the edge and securing another six-year term.

A report on Friday by Control Risks, a global consultancy, said Chavez had a 55 percent chance of winning, while the opposition had a 40 percent chance of victory. The report also said there was a 5 percent chance Chávez would install an open dictatorship if he lost.

"Although a deterioration in Chávez's health could alter the outlook, he remains the marginal favorite to win re-election because of his greater campaign resources, de facto control over the electoral authorities and undoubted charisma," wrote analyst Nicholas Watson of the report's most likely scenario.

Chávez has appeared stronger in recent weeks and his hair has begun to grow back after the chemotherapy. He looked lively as he hosted a summit in Caracas last month, then made his first official foreign trip since he underwent surgery in Cuba.

Details about his condition remain a closely guarded secret. On Friday, he reiterated that he was fully recovered, although medical experts say it is too early to make such a call.

"I think I needed the cancer. I thank God for sending me this illness that helped stop me cold," he said. "Among others things, to see better, to think better, to study better."

Parliamentary elections in September showed South America's top oil exporter basically split down the middle between Chávez supporters and opponents. Whoever he faces at the ballot in October, it is expected to be a close race.

The opposition coalition will hold primaries next month to select a single candidate who will face Chávez in October.

The latest two opinion polls put the youthful Miranda state governor, Henrique Capriles Radonski, firmly in the lead with between 35 percent and 55 percent of votes.

In an open letter to Chávez on Friday, the Democratic Unity coalition called his government a fraud and said the top concern of voters - insecurity - remained unresolved.

"For 13 consecutive years you have betrayed the trust that some Venezuelans put in you, and you've shamelessly played with the hopes of the most needy," said the coalition, which is due to unveil its election manifesto later this month.

"Venezuelan families, irrespective of social status or political affiliation, are the daily victims of rampant crime. Your government does not protect citizens nor punish criminals."