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Pollsters predict ‘small political gain’ for CFK

Posters by the government-backed ‘Equipos de difusión’ insist on nominating the Grandmothers of Plaza de Mayo human rights organization to the Nobel Peace Prize.
By Federico Poore
Herald Staff

Recovery may lead to higher approval but Kirchnerite leaders credit Grandmothers

Good news about Estela de Carlotto’s decades-long quest for her missing grandson may end up helping President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s administration, which has given Grandmothers of Plaza de Mayo a platform to voice their demands for justice.

Political analysts and allies of the ruling Victory Front (FpV) largely believe — with some nuances — that the population recognizes the unequivocal support that the Kirchnerite governments have given the Grandmothers of Plaza de Mayo.

“Good news is always good news for the ruling party,” Manuel Mora y Araujo, a political consultant, told the Herald. “This will likely mean a small political gain for the government, but I don’t think it will be too decisive,” Mora y Araujo added.

Analogías think-tank head Analía del Franco largely agrees with her colleague.

“It’s hard to predict” whether news that Carlotto has recovered her grandson would have a political impact, Del Franco said, “but it surely brings the government and the population closer together.”

“It’s not as if the Cristina’s approval rating will skyrocket or rise to 80 points — but it surely brings sectors that were a little angry closer to the government. This may be seen as a return to the roots of Kirchnerism,” the analyst added.

Del Franco was referring to the term of late president Néstor Kirchner, who in the early stages of his government shook up the human rights movement by turning the ESMA clandestine detention centre into a memorial and cleared the way for trials against military forces who committed crimes against humanity during the last dictatorship.

‘commitment remains clear’

Kirchnerite leaders chose to be more careful when talking about the potential impact of the happy ending for Carlotto’s personal quest.

“The thought didn’t even cross my mind — it’s beautiful news that made most people in Argentina happy,” said Victoria Montenegro, who last year was part of the FpV ballot in the City.

Nevertheless Montenegro, a daughter of disappeared parents who recovered her real identity in 2000, highlighted that Guido Carlotto’s identity was recovered “in the context of the human rights policies carried out over the last few years.”

And the effects of those policies in the political leadership was clear on Tuesday, when the Grandmothers announced the recovery of the 114th grandchild.

“The national government’s commitment remains clear. (Science and Technology Minister Lino) Barañao was present, Cristina (Fernández de Kirchner) and Alicia Kirchner called Estela — this is all related,” Montenegro added.

Malvinas Islands Affairs Secretary Daniel Filmus was also cautious when commenting on the political effect of this week’s case.

“The population has generally supported the human rights policies carried out since 2003, from nullifying the pardons (granted to military officers) to the human rights trials. There has always been popular support,” Filmus told the Herald. “This is just another example of that support.”

The former FpV senator insisted though that the credit should go to the Grandmothers and not to one political party.

“Just remember that people also supported the Conadep,” he said, referring to the National Commission on the Forced Disappearance of Persons set up in 1984 by the Raúl Alfonsín administration.

@fedebillie

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