Indians head to the pollsMonday, April 7, 2014
‘Youngistan’ the key to India’s huge vote
The Internet has played an important role in the build-up to the world’s largest democratic exerciseBHUBANESWAR — As India votes in its 16th general election from April 7 to May 12, the youth, comprising nearly half the country’s 814 million voters, could prove decisive. And the Internet is being used increasingly to target youth in the world’s largest democratic exercise.
India has 383 million voters in the 18-35 age group. Underscoring their importance, pollsters have named this huge segment “Youngistan,” or the nation of the youth.
Not only have election promises been tailored to woo this segment, but for the first time campaign engagement with voters is taking the Internet route, especially over social media platforms.
“There’s more participation and what’s more, politicians are listening as well as responding to young voters through social media,” Sunil Abraham of the Bangalore-based non-profit Centre for Internet and Society (CIS) told IPS.
Mobile phone texting, which was used to reach out to voters in the last election in 2009, has made way for a tech-basket of mobile phones, email campaigns, know-your-leader and political party websites, messages via smart phones, interactive Facebook and Twitter accounts, Google hangouts and YouTube videos.
Social media practitioners say at least 10 percent of the US$664 million projected to be spent on advertisements and publicity by political parties is likely to go to social media companies.
India’s Internet user base has been estimated at 205 million, Facebook users number 65 million, Google+ 36 million, and Twitter 16 million.
In a document titled Social Media and Law Enforcement, India’s Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) projects user strength galloping to 243 million by June 2014, of which 192 million would be active users, 56 million of them rural. Active users are categorized as those who use the Internet at least once a month.
Fifty to 60 percent of current Internet users are in the 18-35 age group, according to Abraham. Politicians are tapping into this huge and growing youth voter base not only to boost their reach but also to monitor engagement and run more effective campaigns.
“Politicians contract us to find out what ‘influencers’ on Twitter are saying about them, and we segregate the positive and negative tweets for a sentiment analysis,” Jwalant Patel, 30-year-old co-founder of social media analytics startup Meruki Analytics and Reporting Services told IPS. “Influencers” are those with at least 10,000 Twitter followers, Patel said.
Of the 70,000 “influencers” that the tech company has identified for its 11 clients within weeks of starting operations, 90 percent are in the 18-40 age group.
‘Social media constituencies’
Patel claims that 160 of the 543 constituencies that go to the polls will be “social media constituencies” where results will be impacted by politicians’ Internet engagement.
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, 63, has a Twitter following of 3.66 million, while Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal, 45, whose anti-corruption plank is widely believed to have got Indian youth interested in politics, has 1.58 million. The Congress party’s Rahul Gandhi, 43, does not have an official Twitter account.
Sustained youth participation in protests in the Delhi rape case of December 2012 and in favour of the anti-corruption Lokpal Bill are other major catalysts in the politically proactive approach of youth in these elections, say analysts.
The dynamics of electioneering has changed in India, with its 1.2 billion people.
Abraham agrees that the Internet in general and social media in particular have had a democratizing effect on the voter-voted relationship, but he warns that once the competition gets tougher, political leaders may resort to “astro-turf” battles where they manipulate e-campaigns, as opposed to the more transparent, physical “grass turf” campaigns.
“How can you bet that all the Facebook ‘likes’ are from genuine supporters?” said Abraham.
Many of the youth seem clear on issues of concern to them.
“Most leading parties are promising jobs for graduates, but when a party that has been in power for several years says ‘we will give jobs,’ we ask what were you doing all these years? If a new party makes the same promise, give them a chance, we say,” 20-year-old student Siddhant Sadangi told IPS in Bhubaneswar, capital of Odisha state in eastern India.
According to India’s National Sample Survey, one in four graduates is unemployed. The figures are worse for women.
More and more village men are preferring higher education to agricultural work, and this means there will be more demand for higher quality jobs in the near future.
Manipur Talks, a vibrant Internet forum that connects the widespread diaspora of northeast India’s Manipur state, lampoons pre-election promises. The site calls the election “Magic Wand Expo 2014 – the biggest expo for wiz-crafts in the world” — a spoof on Harry Potter.
Northeastern communities have been protesting discrimination against them in the rest of India. “Politicians have lost credibility here and what’s more, nothing is done to help the Manipur youth diaspora vote,” Manipur-based social activist Chitra Ahanthem told IPS.
Campaigns by India’s Election Commission to enlist young voters through online registration have succeeded in a nationally high 70 percent turnout expectation, according to Election Commissioner Harishankar Brahma. But many of the 30 percent who will not exercise their franchise will be the young from troubled states.
“The youth of Jammu and Kashmir are isolated, alienated, angry,” Bashir Ahmad Dabla, heading the University of Kashmir’s sociology and social work department told IPS from Srinagar.
“Here, unlike elsewhere, the need for political stability takes precedence over economic issues,” said Dabla. “Jobs, education, water, electricity, roads are important but not the priority in Kashmir.”
The last elections in Kashmir saw only 31 percent voting. Around 50 percent of voters in Kashmir are in the 18-35 age group.
Saba Firdous, a 25-year-old graduate in the state, is not voting this time, and it’s not because of a poll boycott campaign by Kashmiri separatists.
“The major issues for youth here are repealing the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) in Kashmir valley, stopping civilian harassment and killings, resolving the unending conflict,” Firdous told IPS. “Mainstream political parties who go to Parliament will do nothing about these issues, we know.”