Venezuelan opposition cracks could help Chávez’s allies

Venezuela’s multiple opposition parties took a decade to unite against President Hugo Chávez, but old strains are emerging again just as he could be forced from power by cancer.

The increasingly public tensions between moderates and radicals within the five-year-old Democratic Unity coalition play into the government’s hands should Chávez fail to recover from the disease and a new presidential election be held.

“They’re beating each other up. They have no respect for agreements, that’s the opposition we have,” gloated Congress head Diosdado Cabello, the third most powerful government figure after Chávez and Vice-President Nicolás Maduro.

After years of in-fighting, election defeats and chaotic attempts to remove Chávez through street protests, an oil industry strike and even a brief coup, some 30 ideologically diverse political groups formed the opposition coalition in 2008.

It had an auspicious start, winning half the total vote in 2009 parliamentary elections. Then it stayed united — and kept egos in check — during a long primary race to elect state governor Henrique Capriles as its 2012 presidential candidate.

Even though Capriles’ defeat by Chávez was crushing for many in the opposition ranks, he galvanized them like never before and they had their best showing — 44 percent or 6.6 million votes — at a presidential election during the Chávez years.

Yet troubles began almost the next day with murmurings from some wings of the opposition that the centre-left Capriles had been too soft in his public discourse while too controlling in his exclusion of older parties from his campaign.

A thrashing by Chávez’s ruling Socialist Party at regional elections held in December, where the coalition took just three of 23 governorships, accentuated the malaise.

HANDLING CHÁVEZ’S ABSENCE

Now with Chávez unseen since his December 11 cancer surgery, and a new presidential election soon a real possibility, the differences appear to be widening.

On one hand, Capriles and another state governor, Henri Falcón, have been urging opponents to stay cool and avoid street protests despite concern over the legitimacy of Maduro’s now de facto leadership of government. They both shook hands with Maduro at a recent meeting.

And though they disagree with the ruling, they have insisted Venezuelans must respect a Supreme Court judgment that Chávez’s failure to be sworn in for a new term on January 10 did not mean an end to his 14-year rule.

Other well-known opposition leaders, such as Leopoldo López and Antonio Ledezma, are also pushing for a stronger line. Former presidential aspirant Diego Arria — who came second to last in the 2012 opposition primary — accused Capriles’ Justice First party of big-footing the coalition.

“The opposition was born fractured because it’s a collection of various parties where each one keeps their individuality. There’s no way to avoid internal tensions and incoherencies,” said political analyst Luis Enrique Alcala. It is all music to the ears of Maduro and Cabello.

Chávez’s endorsement of Maduro as his preferred successor has served to keep a lid on jostling within the Socialist Party, or PSUV, during the President’s absence.

Maduro, who appears to be in a potential election campaign mode, misses no opportunity to bash the opposition during speeches, ceremonies and visits around Venezuela that are an imitation of his boss’s energetic, on-the-street style.

COULD CAPRILES BEAT MADURO?

In almost every speech, he stresses the words “unity,” “loyalty” and “discipline” among Chávez’s supporters. In his latest attack on the opposition, Maduro said PSUV lawmakers would present proof next Tuesday of “immense corruption” involving an unnamed senior figure in First Justice, the party which Capriles helped found in 2000. “Maduro is in campaign and Primero Justicia is the stone in his shoe. That’s why they attack us,” party leader Julio Borges said later on Twitter.

Though past polls showed Capriles to be far more popular than Maduro and other senior government officials, the picture has almost certainly changed now given the vice president has Chávez’s blessing and has taken a high profile in his absence.

The charismatic Chávez, 58, has a fanatical following among Venezuela’s poor thanks to his own humble roots, common touch and channelling of oil revenues into social projects. That is bound to rub off onto his chosen heir, although no one will ever be able to replace Chávez in the eyes of his supporters.

The cracks emerging in the opposition coalition are another factor leading most analysts to predict Maduro would likely win, albeit in a potentially tight race, should Chávez be declared unfit to rule and an election called a month later as laid out in the constitution.

Though unlikely to break up altogether, perceptions of disunity within the coalition would inevitably demoralize some supporters and put off potential voters.

The intellectual architect of the Democratic Unity movement, Ramón Guillermo Aveledo, insisted however that Venezuelans should see debate within the coalition as a sign of health.

Despite the wide policy differences inside the coalition, there is little doubt about who will be their candidate if there is a new vote. When Aveledo told a recent rally the coalition would again field a unity candidate if there were an election, many in the crowd roared back: “Capriles for president!”

The 40-year-old governor is currently focusing on tasks in his Miranda state and refusing to speculate on another presidential bid. Perhaps with one eye on any future campaign, however, he often berates Maduro and other officials for failing to deal with Venezuela’s grassroots problems, including last weekend’s jail riot that killed nearly 60 people.

— Reuters