Readying for the election year

The politics of 2012 have finally slowed down. But not before, almost literally hours ahead of Christmas, a wave of looting took place from Patagonia to Greater Buenos Aires and Greater Rosario. The looting, which according to national government officials was stoked by its rivals, calmed down as if by magic just before Christmas Eve.

The looting came and went. What it did not do is force President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner out of office. Those who celebrate Christmas did so in extremely hot weather. The heat prompted power outages. But it did not prompt more copycat looting or violence. At least four people were killed during the looting in Rosario a week ago. But the looting is now old news.

Yet the President, who kept mum over Christmas in Patagonia, had made no comment on the situation. Cabinet Chief Juan Manuel Abal Medina almost immediately last week blamed the opposition trade union groups headed by the truck driver Hugo Moyano and the state worker Pablo Micheli for what the national government called “organized robbery.” Moyano, once a key ally of the Kirchnerite administration who now heads the opposition faction of the CGT union grouping, brashly dismissed the allegations and has taken Abal Medina and Justice Minister Julio Alak to court over the accusations. But the days went by and one question was still left unanswered: what did the President think about all this?

Looting was very much part of the situation when a crippling financial crisis saw off then president Fernando de la Rúa, a Radical leading a centre-left coalition, just days before Christmas in 2001. And yet, objectively, there was never a chance that this particular wave of looting now in 2012 would force CFK to quit. Yet the looting can still damage the President’s credibility and raise questions about whether her government is in full control of the nation — especially if the head of state refrains from commenting.

Fernández de Kirchner finally addressed the looting issue during an appearance in Government House on Thursday. The looting, she said, was a “decadent copy” of the kind of ransacking that came before the early exit of Raúl Alfonsín (a Radical) as president during the hyperinflation crisis in 1989 and similar looting before the resignation of De la Rúa as a chaotic 2001 was coming to an end.

According to the President her rivals were trying to replicate the lootings of 1989 and 2001. But, she said, all that they had achieved was for the public to realize that lootings can no longer be used as part of a conspiracy to kick out a democratically-elected president. Time will tell if effectively looting as a political tactic is a thing of the past. The President said as much on Thursday. But then she would, wouldn’t she?

You have to read between the lines to figure out what most politicians in Argentina are really saying. The same stands for Fernández de Kirchner who rarely makes any direct reference to her allies and rivals when she speaks. But what the President did say on Thursday amounted to this: looting as a form of political action is dead in Argentina. You don’t have to agree.

According to the President her rivals, probably meaning Moyano, must establish political parties if they want to rise to power.

Fernández de Kirchner, a Peronist, also said something far more controversial. The Peronist party (often referred to by its acronym in Spanish: PJ) is often behind the agitation used to stoke the looting, Fernández de Kirchner said.

The President also hinted that many Peronist governors (meaning Buenos Aires province Governor Daniel Scioli?) and mayors had ties to the trade unions intent on causing trouble. Was the President trying to drive a wedge between Scioli and Moyano? The looting caused havoc in Greater Buenos Aires, especially in a district (San Fernando) controlled by allies of Tigre Mayor Sergio Massa.

Both Scioli and Massa are seen as moderate Peronists. But so far they have refused to turn against Fernández de Kirchner despite pressure from Moyano and other dissident Peronists.

Scioli has declared that he will seek the Peronist party’s presidential nomination if Fernández de Kirchner does not aim to reform the Constitution to seek a third consecutive term in office in 2015. But he has refused to declare war on the President.

CFK sent out more coded messages on Thursday. Some governors, Fernández de Kirchner complained, are too busy worrying about 2015 to deal with the problems of the present. The question is whether the looting will damage the potential strategic alliance between Scioli, who is now preaching “continuity with change,” and Moyano before it even gets off the ground.

Moyano’s CGT has staged strikes and voiced labour demands, like the end to wage income tax, throughout the year. But Moyano’s alliance with the Kirchnerites last year did not fall to bits over labour demands. It broke down because the President refused to meet Moyano’s political demands for more CGT candidates to be included on the Peronist party lists of congressional candidates.

Polls show that the President’s popularity is no higher than 40 percent. But some pro-government pollsters insist that the President is still the most popular politician in the land and that the ruling Victory Front coalition, which includes the Peronist party, will win the midterm elections next year.

Think about this, if only for a split second, when you hoist your glass to see out 2012. The new year, 2013, is an election year.

Midterm elections are usually challenging for the ruling party. The Victory Front, with the President’s late husband and predecessor running for Congress in Buenos Aires province, performed badly in the midterm elections of 2009. Kirchner lost in Buenos Aires province.

De la Rúa’s Radical-Frepaso Alliance famously performed badly in the midterm elections staged before the 2001 implosion.

Ruling parties generally perform badly in midterm elections. But what if the Victory Front, as some polls are predicting, technically “wins” the election next year? According to the pro-government pollsters and spin-doctors this could be understood to mean that Fernández de Kirchner also wins the “plebiscite” to shoot for re-election in 2015 — even when there is little chance that the Victory Front will command the congressional majority of two thirds required to reform the Constitution to allow for re-election.

It’s too early to predict what kind of an election year 2013 will be and what issues will predominate. Fernández de Kirchner could choose to play the feelgood card by announcing an agreement to do away with the wage income tax for salaries lower than 25,000 pesos a month. The President is in talks with the pro-government faction of the CGT to reform the wage income tax. It’s also not clear what opposition leaders will emerge as the Victory Front’s main rivals. It’s also not clear what issues will dominate the campaign.

The thousands that took to the streets on November 8 certainly know what they don’t like about the CFK administration: inflation, the currency exchange controls, the pressure of the court system, crime and corruption (the kind that landed former economy minister Felisa Miceli a four year prison sentence on Thursday for stashing unexplained cash in her government office). But what if the spirit of November 8 turns into discontent with politicians in general?

Fernández de Kirchner has also survived a general strike called by Moyano, and the looting. Yet the President was still in a confrontational mood when the national government announced earlier this month that it will seize the Palermo fairgrounds currently owned by the Argentine Rural Society. The nation’s four farm lobbies staged a lockout on Wednesday by not sending cattle to market.

Yet the decision to seize the grounds is going ahead as planned after a judge on Friday refused to accept an injunction filed by the Rural Society against the decree issued by the President. The confrontation with the farmers will continue in 2013. But Fernández de Kirchner memorably survived the standoff with the farm lobbies in 2008 and went on to win the presidential election in 2011 with 54 percent of the vote. Another confrontation that will not go away next year is the national government’s court battle with the giant media group Clarín over the constitutionality of the Broadcasting Law.

The Supreme Court on Thursday refused to accept the national government’s per saltum request to take the case. The court said the national government could not seek a per saltum to skip an appeals court ruling because a lower court judge had ruled in its favour. The Supreme Court told the CFK administration that it’s not time for it to deal with the Broadcasting Law. But the Supreme Court will eventually rule on the constitutionality of the law. Its crucial decision, for better or for worse, will come in an election year.