By Martin Gambarotta

There’s so many nice things you can do on a Friday night. A discussion about soybean export duties and the price of beef probably isn’t one of them. Yet the meeting between Cabinet Chief Aníbal Fernández and the four leaders of the farm lobbies was scheduled for Friday afternoon. The three-hour meeting went on into the night. If these people want to meet to discuss crucial issues on a Friday night, when the energy of their brains is probably at their lowest, then let them. But the first casualty of this was any hope of a casual Friday. This particular meet, like meat to a vegetarian, was murder.

The story does not end there. The meeting was followed by two tortuously bewildering press conferences. The government of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and the farmers may not be aware of this, but there is such a concept as a press briefing. The accent is usually on the word brief. The notion that Friday night is a good time for this kind of thing is bad enough. Why not, say, meet on a Thursday morning over coffee? Yet what is doubly distressing is that officials and farmers seem to be oblivious to the fact that then they must get across — succinctly — what they discussed at the meeting.

You think this not important? Really? Possibly. But, also possibly, watching the government and the farmers botch the way in which they try to sort business out says a lot about the mess things are in. Would you leave your business in the hands of people that need hours to explain what went on in a single meeting? There.

“We feel like we were at two different meetings and that worries us a little bit,” said Eduardo Buzzi, the leader of the Small Farmers Federation. It should also worry the rest of the nation a little bit. Buzzi was speaking at the Liaison Board’s press conference on the Rural Society’s grounds in Palermo. But first up was the press conference headed by Fernández at Government House. The Board, which groups the nation’s four leading farm lobbies, only held its press conference after listening to what the government had to say. Débora Giorgi, the production minister who was in on the meeting with the farmers, also spoke at the press conference. Giorgi packed so many numbers into one same long sentence that it was impossible not to feel your brain gradually numbing as she spoke. Eloquence is not Giorgi’s forte. She is good at crunching numbers. Giorgi should hire a press officer to translate what she has in her mind.

Yet Giorgi’s equation carried a punch. What she said reportedly irked the farmers. At least part of what she said was not highlighted by the nation’s two biggest-selling papers. So you can now catch it here as reported by an international news agencies and get the full story. “Giorgi said farmers have had good profit margins in the first half of the year as international prices of corn and soybean have recovered while prices for fertilizers and herbicides have come down.” (The two major dailies didn’t have time for the bit about the falling price of fertilizers and herbicides). Giorgi said that the government’s annual subsidies and loans for the farm sector totalled 5.7 billion dollars and had helped to increase production. She also put next year’s harvest at an ambitious 96 million metric tons.

What Giorgi said was only half of the announcement. The Cabinet chief said the government will open the export of wheat and corn (if domestic demand is met) and make it easier to get an export permit from ONCAA, the State export agency accused by the farmers of limiting exports. Beef export quotas (especially for seven prime cuts of beef) have also been increased, the government said. The farmers thus did not leave the meeting with no beef on their plate. But the Cabinet chief said that the government had not accepted the farmers’ demands to abolish export duties for corn, wheat and sunseed and for a 10 percent cut on soybean export duties (currently standing at 35 percent). Fernández said the duties could not be slashed because the government needs the money. At stake in the potential cuts are an estimated three billion dollars a year.

All the anticipation about the meeting had been about the possibility that the government, after its tumultuous standoff with the farmers last year and June’s electoral defeat, would announce at least a cut in the export duties of corn, wheat and sunseed. The President dropped in on the talks in Government House to greet the farmers on Friday, the Cabinet chief said. But she brought no good news for them.
Fernández de Kirchner, the day before the talks, had announced on Thursday that the government had signed an agreement with part of the dairy industry (without the blessing of the four farm lobbies) to increase from 10 to 20 cents the subsidy paid for the first 3,000 litres of milk for farmers that produce up to 12,000 litres. To the government this was all the good news it could announce before the talks. The government and the farmers are still at odds over the export duties. There’s speculation that the government plans to eventually lower (or even abolish) the duties for corn, wheat and sunseed. But it has purportedly kept such a decision as a negotiating chip for potential future talks with the farmers. The Cabinet chief reportedly had favoured announcing a grain export duty cut on Friday, but was said to have been overruled by the President.

When the ministers wrapped up the wordy press conference at Government House, it was the farmers’ turn to speak at the Rural Society. The farmers’ press conference was also a ramble. You had to fight hard to get to the substance of what they were saying.

Carlos Garetto, the head of the Coninagro farming co-operatives, said something newsworthy: the farmers do not plan to sit at the Economic and Social Council called by the government to negotiate policies with trade union and business leaders.

The farmers could come under pressure from business lobbies (and the trade unions) to join the Council. Business executives and trade union leaders have no choice but to negotiate until they reach an agreement. The annual meeting of the Minimum Wage Council, a government-sponsored forum that includes business leaders and unionists, late on Tuesday agreed to increase the minimum salary to 1500 pesos by the start of 2010 (it currently stands at 1240 pesos).

The government needed an agreement on the minimum salary before it can call the Economic and Social Council talks. But there is still one major salary negotiation pending. The UOM metal workers union, that is demanding an increase of 22 percent, went on strike on Thursday. The UOM has accused the giant steelmaker Techint of sabotaging salary negotiations. The management has offered a wage increase of 12 percent. UOM vocally backed Kirchner in the midterm elections. Kirchner, speaking at a UOM rally before the elections, blasted a Techint company for withdrawing dividends while refusing to pay an annual bonus demanded by workers. UOM has called another strike for Thursday and insists that Techint’s ultimate goal is to “ruin Kirchner’s economic model.”

Back to Friday night. Buzzi called for moderation on opening the press conference, which was attended by about 200 farmers. Thousands of farmers had vented their anger at a similar press conference called by the Liaison Board leaders on Monday. Hugo Biolcati, the head of the conservative Argentine Rural Society, was so exasperated by the state of things that Monday that he even took a swipe at the opposition. The political situation after the ruling party was defeated in the midterm elections in Buenos Aires province on June 28 “is a bouncing ball which the opposition must pick up now.”

The ruling party, with former president Néstor Kirchner heading the list, was trashed in rural towns across Buenos Aires province by Francisco de Narváez, the head of the centre-right coalition Unión-PRO. And Buenos Aires Governor Daniel Scioli, a Peronist who ran as a ruling party candidate on June 28, was jeered by the irate farmers on Monday. Scioli had visited the farm fair the previous Friday and met with the Liaison Board leaders in a bid to open consensus talks. But the farmers were not amused.
Yet even opposition leaders criticized the farmers’ foul-tempered press conference. Felipe Solá, a dissident Peronist who ran on De Narváez’s ticket, said Monday’s press conference had been “too aggressive.” Most opposition parties are currently in the middle of consensus talks with the Fernández de Kirchner administration.

The President, in a bid to limit the damage from defeat, on July 9 called for consensus talks to study a major reform of the political system. Critics say that the government, which will lose control of the new Congress when it convenes in December, has called for dialogue to buy some time. But the opposition, including De Narváez and his ally City of Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri, seem to be giving the consensus talks a chance — possibly because they’ve come to the conclusion that the public really does want a negotiated solution to Argentina’s woes. Buzzi on Tuesday admitted that the press conference of the day before had been too hot-tempered. “We must be more careful,” he said.

Incidentally, here’s another reason why Friday’s meeting was ill-timed: the talks came the day before the official opening of the annual Rural fair in Palermo. Biolcati yesterday delivered the opening speech at the farm fair with opposition leaders in attendance, including De Narváez and Macri. Vice-President Julio Cobos sent a cautiously-worded letter expressing his support for the demands of the farm sector. Cobos, a dissident Radical who now leads an opposition party called ConFe, famously cast a tie-breaking vote last year in the Senate against the government’s bill to increase export duties, which was fiercely opposed by the farmers. Biolcati yesterday, with his three Liaison Board colleagues in attendance, did not declare all-out war on the government and said that the farmers were still willing to give “dialogue a chance.” But he complained that farmers were tired of being milked to bankroll “a predator state,” and implied that political corruption was also a problem. Critics say there is something fishy about the fantastic way in which the Kirchners’ assets have increased in just one year.

The farm fair was at the centre of political attention throughout the week. Cobos, who was given a hero’s welcome, visited the fair on Tuesday night. He chatted amiably with De Narváez. Cobos’ remark that he saw “eye-to-eye” on many issues with De Narváez prompted speculation that they could be on the same side sometime soon.

Cobos is currently part of the Social and Civic Accord, which also includes the Radical Party and Elisa Carrió’s Civic Coalition. De Narváez, who is expected to run for governor in 2011, is technically in allegiance with Macri, the head of PRO. Yet it’s not impossible to think that De Narváez could consider endorsing Cobos for president in 2011 if Macri does not throw his hat into the ring anytime soon. Polls show that Cobos, who could have the backing of most of the Radical Party if he decides to run for president, is still the most popular politician in the land. Yet Carrió, who has refused to attend the government’s sponsored talks, could also make a bid for the presidency.

Ironically, the government’s decision to call consensus talks has done more harm to the opposition than Kirchner’s confrontational style ever did during last year’s conflict. Already the Civic Coalition (it is made up of two parties headed by Carrió and Stolbizer) has split in Buenos Aires province. The rift came after Stolbizer, the head of the GEN party, agreed to attend talks with the national government and with Scioli. Carrió’s party, ARI, has refused to talk political reform with the government.

De Narváez and Solá (a former Peronist governor of Buenos Aires province in 2002-2007) also met with Scioli in La Plata on Tuesday. There was something ironic about the meeting in La Plata also.
De Narváez defeated Kirchner. He is richer and more popular than his running-mate Solá. Yet Solá is more experienced and has more contacts in the Peronist party than De Narváez, a businessman who is relatively new to politics.

Solá reportedly did most of the talking during the meeting with Scioli. Scioli and Solá also held a backroom meeting without De Narváez to discuss the situation in the Peronist party. Kirchner stepped down as head of the Peronist party on June 29. The party, which is packed with dissidents that challenge Kirchner’s authority, is now formally headed by Scioli. 

Scioli also met with Stolbizer on Wednesday and with leaders of the Radical Party, including Ricardo Alfonsín on Thursday. Scioli’s province is in debt. Scioli is looking at a deficit of at least five billion pesos this year and there is speculation that his administration could have problems paying public administration salaries if the national government does not come to the rescue. Talk about not paying salaries has prompted speculation that financial woes could spark protests and even violence. Working-class Greater Buenos Aires is always a flashpoint when money runs short and the political situation is volatile. “We will guarantee governability,” said Alfonsín after the talks with the governor. Scioli also still has the support of the Peronist mayors in Greater Buenos Aires.

“Governability,” of course, could also turn into a problem for Fernández de Kirchner if the consensus talks don’t prosper. The ruling Peronist-lead Victory Front (FpV) will not be in control of Congress in December. The balance of power is already swaying away from the Kirchners.
María José Bongiorno, an FpV senator from Río Negro province, announced on Tuesday that she has quit the ruling party’s caucus. Three FpV lawmakers from Entre Ríos province also quit the ruling party’s caucus in the Lower House. The senator’s decision to quit the Victory Front means that come December the ruling party will hold 35 out of the 72 Senate seats (two short of quorum).

Fernández de Kirchner, only a day after the senator jumped ship, huddled with FpV lawmakers in Government House on Wednesday. The President announced that she has submitted a bill to Congress to limit the Cabinet chief’s “superpowers” to reassign budget funds. The Cabinet chief will only have the right to reallocate five percent of the budget if the bill is approved, Fernández de Kirchner said. The President made a point of underlining that Macri currently also enjoys the right of reallocating five percent of the budget. The opposition has accused the government of amassing too much power after Congress in 2006 was prodded by Kirchner into allowing the Executive to have the superpowers permanently, without the need to ask for them to be extended each year. The President said the “superpowers” issue was “a fabrication” which, if the bill is approved, will be quashed thus allowing for other matters to be discussed Congress. The farmers have vowed to take their demand for lower export duties to Congress. Yet it is not clear whether the opposition will agree on one single bill. The Lower House’s agriculture committee met for the first time in nine months on Wednesday, but made no progress on the export duties issue.

Take the farm conflict away and there’s still many a thorny issue out there in politically-dysfunctional Argentina. For example: the Catholic Archbishop of La Plata, Héctor Agüer, saw it fit to voice an opinion on state policies and on Wednesday said that a national government sex education booklet for teachers, based on United Nations policies to fight AIDS, was “neo-Marxist” and “totalitarian.” The government said that it was conducting policy according to the Education Law approved by Congress. “The law is not an opinion,” said Education Minister Alberto Sileoni. The INADI anti-discrimination state agency said that it will probe Agüer’s comments.

Looking for another controversial issue? Jorge Palacios, the newly appointed head of the Metropolitan Police established by Macri, could still be potentially indicted for covering up evidence when he was a Federal Police officer probing the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community building. Macri has called criticism of Palacios “political.” Yet the whole issue could turn into a political embarrassment for the conservative mayor if a prosecutor decides that there is enough evidence to indict Palacios.