Quickly: what do you call a supporter of Vice-President Julio Cobos? A Cobist. But at one point in the week a hack in one of the many websites, updating the latest political news, instead of Cobist typed Cubist. Big deal. What’s in a funny typo? Nothing. A Cobist can easily be confused with a Cubist. And what did you expect? Argentine politics often reads more complicated than modern art. It’s almost as difficult to explain. It’s odd enough that you have to count the supporters of the Vice-President separate from those who back President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. But that’s the way it has been ever since Cobos last year cast a tie-breaking vote in the Senate against the President’s bill to increase soybean export duties.

All this is now more relevant because the ruling Peronist party lost the midterm elections in Buenos Aires province on June 28. Néstor Kirchner, the President’s husband, stepped down as chairman of the Peronist party after he lost in Buenos Aires province. Cobos, who is not a Peronist but a dissident Radical and now heads a party called ConFe, backed the winning opposition candidates in his home province, Mendoza. Right now the Kirchnerites are not doing well. Things are looking up for the Cobists.

When the President, cornered by defeat, called for talks with the opposition to reach consensus on a reform of the political system you had to get ready to deal with a pile of acronyms and isms. Here’s the basics: the Peronist party is also known by its initials in Spanish, PJ. The Radical party is also called the Radical Civic Union (UCR). Elisa Carrió is a leader of the Civic Coalition (CC). The Coalition has a standing agreement with the UCR and Cobo’s ConFe. Together these three centrist opposition parties are known as the Social and Civic Accord. The Socialist Party, which rules in Santa Fe province, is also part of the Accord. The centre-right coalition that defeated Kirchner in Buenos Aires province is called Unión-PRO. In Buenos Aires province Unión-PRO carried businessman Francisco de Narváez atop of its list of candidates to the Lower House. PRO is headed by City of Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri.

It’s so mind-boggling that it makes you want to shout stop! The irony is that the future of this nation hinges on figuring out how this gibberish will pan out over the two years and a half Fernández de Kirchner has left in office.

So, fasten your seatbelt and enjoy the ride. Florencio Randazzo, the Interior minister, formally called the talks on Monday to discuss a bill to introduce simultaneous and compulsory primaries for all political parties. Initially, much of the opposition thought Randazzo was trying to pull a fast one on them and buy time for the government. Randazzo’s idea of consensus talks was this. There are, he said, 50 parties that hold seats in Congress. The government, he said, planned to call 10 parties at a time for talks.

Senator Gerardo Morales, the chairman of the UCR, took offence. The Accord of which the UCR is a member, Morales said, won nearly 30 percent of the vote nationwide on June 28 and cannot mix with the smaller fish. The talks, it appeared, were breaking down even before anyone could get a sip of coffee in Government House.

But Randazzo, in a sign that the government has no choice but to mean some kind of business, quickly corrected himself. The Accord, Randazzo said after checking with the President, was summoned to a meeting on Wednesday in Government House. Morales was pleased. He announced the UCR would attend the talks.

The opposition has little choice but to accept such an invitation, at least initially, because during the campaign it accused Kirchner, who took office as president in 2003 and then handed power to his wife in 2007, of intolerance and refusing to talk on friendly terms with the opposition. Deputy-elect Margarita Stolbizer, the Accord’s candidate in Buenos Aires province, put it like this, “we’ve been insisting on talks for six years, we can hardly refuse when invited.” Not if you ask Carrió.

Here there’s another technical twist: Carrió and Stolbizer (both former Radicals) are leaders of the Civic Coalition. The Coalition is part of the Accord. But Carrió and Stolbizer lead two separate parties. Carrió heads ARI and Stolbizer leads GEN. ARI + GEN = Civic Coalition. But for how long?

Carrió, a deputy-elect who came third in the City of Buenos Aires on June 28, called a press conference on Tuesday. A Civic Coalition lawmaker said that if the government wanted to talk it should send its ministers to Congress.

Under their breath Carrió’s supporters were calling Stolbizer “a backstabber.” Carrió has reportedly left the country for a holiday break with her two children to have — and hear — nothing of it. All the other Accord parties, including Stolbizer’s, met with Randazzo in Government House on Wednesday. “Dialogue,” as local politicians like to call it, has in the past degenerated into nothing more than waffle. But, after six years without such talks, even a little hot air can be refreshing.

Randazzo has made a point of underlining that the ruling party won the elections nationwide, if only just, with about 32 percent of the vote (5.7 million votes). Yet, because of the upset defeat in Buenos Aires province, the Kirchners are at their weakest since Néstor took office in 2003.

So, how did the talks go on Wednesday? The Accord took the talks seriously. Morales underlined that the Radicals had sent their top brass (himself included). He added that political reform is all very well. But the Accord told Randazzo that other more urgent issues, like the alleged manipulation of the inflation rate reported by the state-run statistics bureau INDEC, must be addressed. Randazzo, according to Morales, “took note and will report this to the President.”

Morales dismissed speculation that Carrió could severe ties with the rest of the Accord over the talks. But, unlike Carrió, Morales highlighted “two positive signals.” One: the government’s decision to alter the rules at the request of the UCR.

Two: a meeting on Wednesday in the Lower House of Congress to agree on a parliamentary agenda between the ruling party and opposition lawmakers. Chortling at “dialogue” is one thing. But even Carrió sent an emissary (Deputy Adrián Pérez) to the Wednesday morning meeting hosted by Lower House Speaker Eduardo Fellner with the leaders of 10 Lower House blocs.

Deputy Federico Pinedo, the head of the PRO bloc who is fiercely critical of the government, said that he was impressed by the outcome of the Lower House meeting.

Things in Argentina move so fast, Pinedo said on Wednesday night, that the day before he was criticizing ruling party caucus leader Deputy Agustín Rossi. “Now here I am,” he said, “saying nice things about him.” Rossi, who diligently cracked the ruling party’s whip in Congress last year during the standoff with the farmers over duties, said the government got the message of the election result loud and clear.

Fellner, Rossi and the opposition parties on Wednesday agreed to debate issues that last year were kept out of bounds by the ruling party when it was more powerful. The blocs have now agreed to debate grain export duties, the special powers to reallocate funds granted to the government, INDEC, the federal revenue sharing of the cheque tax and the reform of the Council of Magistrates. A child benefit bill will also be tabled.

The government has meanwhile announced it has called De Narváez and Macri for talks next week. The talks, De Narváez said early in the week possibly after taking a glance at public opinion polls, “are a giant step forward.” But De Narváez yesterday said he will not allow the talks to turn “into a government monologue.” The talks have not broken down just yet. Cobos on Thursday chided Carrió for not attending.

Carrió and Cobos could in the future clash to clinch the backing of the Radical party in the presidential elections of 2011. Cobos implied on Thursday that he could step down in March 2011 to run in the Radical presidential primary (if there ever is one).

Practically all opposition parties agreed that they are not interested in solely discussing political reform. Deputy-elect “Pino” Solanas, the leftist candidate who came in a strong second in the City of Buenos Aires, said that his party wants to have a say on social and economic policies.

The government originally planned to discuss the economy with the General Labour Confederation (CGT) union umbrella group and with business lobbies, including the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA) and the ADEBA association of Argentine private banks. Pinedo, for one, has complained that the notion that you discuss economic issues only with trade unions and business leaders harks back to fascist Italy. The government is also reportedly poised to call a meeting of the Economic and Social Council. The Liaison Board of farm associations will also be invited to the council.

Yet old Italian habits die hard. The President hosted a secretive dinner with union and business leaders in Government House on Tuesday night ahead of next week’s talks. The guests dined with Cabinet Chief Aníbal Fernández and Federal Planning Minister Julio De Vido. The President then joined the talks for coffee.

Fernández was promoted from justice minister when the President reshuffled her Cabinet on July 7. The reshuffle included the promotion of Amado Boudou from head of the state-run pension administrator ANSeS to economy minister. But where was Boudou when that exclusive dinner was held on Tuesday?

Boudou replaced Carlos Fernández, a low-profile technocrat, as economy minister. The President, on announcing the reshuffle, had anticipated that Boudou, who was trained in a neoconservative university but has embraced state intervention under the Kirchners, would be more talkative than his predecessor.

But Boudou did practically no talking for most of the week and has yet to name his cabinet. There is speculation Boudou simply froze when the President’s inner circle objected to an official he planned to name as his top legal adviser because his father is accused of committing human rights violation in Mar del Plata during the dictatorship.

Boudou was also subjected to intense pressure by the press and the opposition to sack Guillermo Moreno, the domestic trade secretary who aggressively monitors retail prices and critics say is responsible for the manipulation of the inflation rate reported by INDEC.

Boudou finally opened his mouth on Friday to declare that Argentina intends to return to international credit markets. He ruled out that any “adjustment plans” are in the works. Boudou had previously declared that Argentina did not plan to seek money from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), unless the conditions to get a loan change. Yesterday Boudou said that Moreno will not be fired. But he said INDEC will likely be tweaked.

Inflation in June clocked in at 0.4 percent, INDEC said on Wednesday. In the past private economists have said that in reality inflation is twice as high. But this time most private forecasts only differed slightly from what INDEC said. There is reason for this: the economy is grinding to a halt. INDEC on Friday reported no economic growth in May compared to the same month of last year (and only 0.1 percent growth compared to April).

Argentina, if you ask the private economists, is in a recession. According to INDEC the economy is stagnant. Even if Moreno is sacked the government will find it difficult to undo the web that it has spun in INDEC to pay less to service index-linked bonds and limit the political cost of reporting high inflation.    Two new officials that the government has named by decree in INDEC, one of whom will be in charge of the Consumer Price Index, support Moreno.

But at the same time the opposition can be expected to continue to call for Moreno’s head and the overhaul of INDEC. The farmers on Thursday met with opposition leaders to agree on policies that will be tabled in Congress. The talks with the farmers were attended by De Narváez, Stolbizer and dissident Peronist Senator Carlos Reutemann, who won the elections in Santa Fe last month after severing ties with the Kirchnerites and siding with the farmers. Cobos and Santa Fe Governor Hermes Binner excused themselves from attending. The opposition, even after the friendly breakfast with Rossi on Wednesday, can be expected to launch an offensive to have export duties lowered as soon as possible.

The Cabinet chief admitted that he had called the farmers for “informal” talks after a ceremony on Thursday to announce the distribution of a quota to sell prime beef to Europe. But the top leaders of the farmers refused to attend and seem to be sponsoring their own round of consensus talks. One farm leader said after talks with the opposition that they are still to decide whether they will join the Economic and Social Council, which has yet to be formally called.

The Fernández de Kirchner administration only stands a chance of not being at the mercy of the Peronist governors and the opposition if it can keep the momentum of the consensus talks both in Congress, Government House and the Economic and Social Council going all at the same time. But it’s tough to juggle for a long time when you’re politically weak.

The government seems to be suddenly — and desperately — interested in political reform to introduce presidential primaries because it is the only way it can quash dissent in the Peronist party. A similar reform, introduced in 2002 but never fully implemented, was quashed by the ruling party with the support of most of the opposition in 2006. But now the Kirchnerite plan seems to be to eventually call Peronist primaries in a bid to both defeat Reutemann and keep De Narváez and Macri from trying to gain control of the party. The problem is that Kirchner could flunk his electioneering, like in June.

Kirchner currently seems to be scrambling to stay in control of his home territory: Patagonia. He unexpectedly visited the Patagonian province of Chubut on Monday. “I was,” he said commenting on defeat in Buenos Aires province, “a victim of old-style politics.”

The perplexing comment prompted speculation that Kirchner thinks that he was “betrayed” by the Peronist mayors of Greater Buenos Aires because they won more votes than he did on June 28. Hugo Moyano, the head of the CGT, has also complained about “treason” — without naming any names. Mario Das Neves, the governor of Chubut, is a former Kirchnerite who has now made a bid to clinch the Peronist presidential nomination. Kirchner, while in Chubut, called Das Neves “a friend.”

But Das Neves fiercely lashed back calling Kirchner “a hypocrite who is not my friend.” The ruling party unexpectedly lost the midterm election in Santa Cruz, Kirchner’s home province. Santa Cruz Governor Daniel Peralta, handpicked by Kirchner to run the province, was forced to deny reports that he will resign on Friday after rumours swirled that the former president had withdrawn his support. Is Kirchner thinking about retreating to Patagonia in 2011?

That’s where he is sulking now. Buenos Aires Governor Daniel Scioli, the Peronist who ran with Kirchner on the ticket in June, is meanwhile reportedly trying to clinch the full support of the Peronist party machine controlled by the mayors to seek re-election in 2011. The Scioli administration (with the governor abroad) has announced that Cacho Alvarez, the mayor of Avellaneda, has been named as the new head of the province’s social welfare portfolio (he replaces Daniel Arroyo). Scioli, who was originally based in the City of Buenos Aires and lacks territorial clout in the province, and the mayors must also ready to deal with what is likely to be an assault by De Narváez and Macri to gain control of at least a secion of the Peronist party in the province.

Moyano, who vocally backed the Kirchnerite candidates before the election, is also been challenged by rival union bosses. Oscar Lescano, the head of the power utility workers union, said on Friday that Moyano must now agree to being part of a three-man leadership. Lescano’s comments came a day after Moyano called a meeting of the CGT leadership to assess the outcome of the election. The meeting was not attended by Lescano and the leaders of other major unions, including the UOCRA construction workers union and the UPCN civil servants union.

Yet throwing Moyano out of the CGT will not put an end to his power because he has the backing of all major transport sector unions. Moyano’s truck drivers union, now headed by his son Pablo, has been granted a 17 percent pay increase (in the middle of stagnation and a world economic crisis). The UOM metal workers union, still loyal to Moyano, has in turn called a strike for July 23 after the management refused to grant a 22 percent hike.